Megawatts on Paper

Alberta's data-centre queue has grown to 20,525 MW, roughly twice the province's 2025 average internal load, but the queue is a record of requested interconnection capacity rather than a forecast of operating demand. This paper builds a stage-gated conversion framework that separates requested megawatts from technically studied, financed, contracted, energized, and utilized load.

The analysis finds that 18.7 GW, or 91% of the non-cancelled queue, remains under the AESO's preliminary ISD review, while only 1.2 GW is both modelled and included in the 2026 Long-term Adequacy Metrics. A probability-weighted scenario model produces a 2030 realized-load range of approximately 0.8 to 4.0 GW and a central estimate near 1.5 GW, far below the headline queue.

The investment implication is that value should accrue less to raw queue position and more to assets that remove conversion bottlenecks: deliverable generation, substations, firm gas and transmission access, and flexible campuses protected by deposits, milestones, termination payments, and redeployment rights. The paper converts a power-market headline into an underwriting framework for distinguishing bankable demand from optionality.